Dealing with the 283 lb elephant in the room

As it currently stands we are one week away from February 26th, the day in which teams need to declare their franchise tags for the 2010 NFL season. Due to the current lack of a CBA one element of this offseason is that each team has two franchise tags on their prospective free agents. This doesn’t mean, however, that Julius Peppers is a lock to be given one of these tags.

The relationship between Peppers’ camp and the Carolina Panthers’ organization is beyond strained. Though nothing has been said officially, it appears that Jerry Richardson, Marty Hurney and co. are waiting to see if a new CBA can be established before offering any new contracts. After all, if the owners get their way and the salary cap shrinks by up to 20% in 2011 committing to a contract now without knowing how low the cap could be is tantamount to purchasing a sports car without considering if you can afford the payments down the road.

Julius Peppers and his agent Carl Carey are taking this lack of communication as perceived indifference. They both have been speaking to media outlets essentially putting forth the notion that the Panthers silence equates a lack of interest and their desire to now take any options for a long term extension off the table and instead focus on finding Peppers a new team.

There are several possible outcomes of the Julius Peppers saga, so let’s explore them now and talk about the likelihood of it occurring.

Option One: Peppers resigns with the Panthers-
Chance of Occurring: Less than 10%

Peppers wants to be the highest paid defensive player in the NFL. This would require a contract higher than $100 million deal Albert Haynesworth was given by the Redskins. The offer of getting that ‘highest paid’ moniker was on the table prior to the Haynesworth deal, but ultimately those extra $25 million might break the bank. Couple this with the aforementioned issues and Peppers resigning seems like a long shot.

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Option Two: Peppers is franchise tagged plays for Carolina in 2010.
Chance of Occurring: 15%

While not as unlikely as Peppers staying long term it’s still highly unlikely he will play one more season for the Panthers. It would require more than a $20 million investment for one season, and even with that one year deal Peppers would likely become so disgruntled his performance on the field would be lacking.

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Option Three: Peppers is franchise tagged and traded.
Chance of Occurring: 25%

While this may be the option the Panthers prefer, it will be tough to find a trade partner to take Peppers. Teams will likely play chicken with the Panthers daring them to franchise him again and instead bank that they will not use a franchise tag on him and work forwards signing him as a free agent. If they were able to find a trade partner I think Peppers can only garner a 2nd or 3rd round pick for the Panthers at this juncture. They will hold out hope that a team will offer a 1st rounder, but it seems unlikely.

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Option Four: Peppers is not franchised and leaves the Panthers with no compensation for the team.
Chance of Occurring: 50%

Lastly (and unfortunately most likely) is the prospect of losing Peppers without any compensation. I believe the Panthers would like to move forward however possible, including losing Peppers without getting anything in return. This is a season where John Fox will have to perform to earn a new contract for 2011 and with a cloud over the 2011 season the Panthers may decide that the last thing they need is a preseason distraction. It’s no ideal, but it allows the team to move forward.

What do you think? Which option do you think is the most likely?